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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.