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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."